Archive for April, 2006

Crude oil ETF starts trading

Monday, April 10th, 2006

The first crude oil-based ETF (ticker USO) started trading today on the American Exchange. This ETF is designed to track the price of U.S. benchmark crude oil and would probably become a hot favorite among “black-gold bugs”.
The figure shows the trading action for this first day. A substantial 3.8 million shares were traded.

Disclosure of conflict of interest

Saturday, April 8th, 2006

When the client is ill-informed about certain products, does disclosure of conflict of interest by the advisor help? This paper, in the Journal of Legal Studies, has an interesting viewpoint, arguing that disclosure can have perverse effects instead. I think this is because the disclosure lulls the clients into thinking that they are in good […]

The yield curve and predicting recessions

Friday, April 7th, 2006

Interesting paper by Jonathan Wright that studies the use of the slope of the Treasury yield curve as a leading economic indicator, with inversion of the curve being thought of as a harbinger of a recession. He considers a number of probit models using the yield curve to forecast recessions. The paper concludes that
Consistent with […]